近期关于“哪些职业会被AI取代”的讨论热火朝天。作为一个聊天机器人，ChatGPT能否代替人们完成一些公关活动，比如新闻发布会？我们用财料的“老朋友”美联储主席鲍威尔在今年2月的议息发布会的问答当素材，给ChatGPT来了场模拟发布会。以下是ChatGPT与鲍威尔针对同个问题的问答原文。

Q1：Why do you think further rate increases are needed? Why not stop here and see what transpires in the coming months before raising rates again?

Powell：We've raised rates four and a half percentage points and we're talking about a couple of more rate hikes to get to that level we think is appropriately restrictive. And why do we think that's probably necessary? We think because inflation is still running very hot. We're, of course, taking into account long and variable lags, and we're thinking about that. It really -- the story we're telling about inflation is to ourselves and the way we understand it is basically the three things that I've just gone through a couple of times. And again, we don't see it affecting the services sector X housing yet. But I mean I think our assessment is that we're not very far from that level. We don't know that, though. We don't know that. So, I think we're -- you know, we're living in a world of significant uncertainty. I would look across the rate -- the spectrum of rates and see that real rates are now positive by -- you know, by an appropriate set of measures are positive across the yield curve. I think policy is restrictive. We're trying to make a fine judgment about how much is restrictive enough. That's all. And we're going to -- you know, that's why we're slowing down to 25 basis points. We're going to be carefully watching the economy and watching inflation and watching the progress of the disinflationary process.

ChatGPT：I believe that further rate increases are necessary to keep inflation in check and help support a strong economy. Inflation expectations have been rising due to strong economic growth, and the Fed's goal is to keep inflation around 2%. Further rate increases help to reduce the amount of money in circulation, which could help put a lid on inflation rates. Furthermore, stopping here and waiting to see what transpires in the coming months could potentially lead to an overheating of the economy, which in turn could cause prices to rise and create a situation in which the Fed would be forced to act too late to control inflation.

问题一：你为什么认为需要进一步加息？为什么不在再次加息前先停一停观察下未来几个月的变化？

鲍威尔：我们已经将利率提高了450个基点，并且我们正在谈论再加息几次才能达到我们认为适当利率的水平。 为什么我们认为这可能是必要的？因为通胀仍然非常严重。当然，我们也考虑到长期的、可变的滞后效应。 我们讲述的关于通膨的理解是对我们美联储自己的，我们理解它的方式基本上是我刚刚经历过的事件。 目前，还没有看到加息对服务业和住房市场的影响。但我认为我们的评估是我们离最终利率水平不远。不过，我们当前无法得知到底是什么水平。因为我们生活的世界充满巨大的不确定性。我会关注到整体收益率曲线在经过一系列政策之后已经回到正值区间。当然我们的政策是有限制性的。我们正在对是紧缩政策的程度是否足够作出准确判断。所以这次我们把加息脚步放慢到25个基点。我们将仔细观察经济、通胀和反通胀过程的进展。

ChatGPT：有必要进一步加息以控制通胀并帮助支撑强健的经济。 由于经济增长强劲，所以通胀预期一直在上升，美联储的目标是将通胀保持在2%左右。进一步加息有助于减少流通中的货币量，这有助于抑制通胀。 此外停在原地等待未来几个月会发生什么，可能会导致经济过热使得物价上涨，这样的话美联储就只能被迫采取行动，可能就为时已晚。

Q2：Would it be possible to take a meeting off, for example, and then resume? You know, could you rather than just doing at every meeting that move go a little bit more slowly, take some gaps in between moves?

Powell：I mean, I think this is not something that the Committee is thinking about or exploring in any kind of detail. In principle, though, you know, we used to think -- we used to do was go every other meeting, if you remember 25 basis points, and that was considered a fast pace. So, I think a lot of options are available. And I mean, you saw what the Bank of Canada did and, you know, they left it that they're willing to raise rates after pausing. But this is not something that the Federal Open Market Committee is on the point of deciding right now.

ChatGPT：Yes, it is possible for the Federal Reserve to take meetings off and then resume. However, the Fed typically follows a schedule of regularly scheduled meetings established by Congress, and it would likely require Congressional approval to deviate from this schedule. With regard to taking longer gaps in between interest rate raises, yes, the Federal Reserve can do this. The Fed has the flexibility to adjust the pace of rate hikes at each meeting depending on its assessment of current economic conditions and their implications for future growth and inflation.

问题二：有没有可能不要每次会议都加息，可以先暂停一两次会议，然后再加息？

鲍威尔：我不认为暂停一段时间后再加息是委员会正在考虑或探索的细节。不过，原则上，美联储过去常常做的是每隔一次会，才会进行利率调整。以前加息25个基点那段时间，就被认为快节奏。我们其实有很多选择。现在加拿大央行就表示即使暂停一段后也可以加息。但是这不是美联储现在能决定的事情。

ChatGPT：是的，美联储有可能暂停会议然后恢复会议。 但通常情况下，美联储是要遵循国会制定的定期会议时间表。如果要不按时间表开会，那就可能需要国会批准。关于在加息之间采取更长的间隔，确实，美联储可以这样做。 美联储可以根据对当前经济状况的评估及其对未来增长和通胀的影响，在每次会议上灵活调整加息步伐。

Q3：As you know financial conditions have loosened since the fall with bond yields falling, which has also brought down mortgage rates, and the stock market posted a solid gain in January. Does that make your job of combating inflation harder? And could you see lifting rates higher than you otherwise would to offset the increase in -- or to offset the easing of financial conditions?

Powell：It is important that overall financial conditions continue to ref lect the policy restraint that we're putting in place in order to bring inflation down to 2 percent. And of course, financial conditions have tightened very significantly over the past year. I would say that our focus is not on short-term moves but on sustained changes to broader financial conditions. And it is our judgment that we're not yet at a sufficiently restrictive policy stance, which is why we say that we expect ongoing hikes will be appropriate. Of course, many things affect financial conditions, not just our policy. And we will take into account overall financial conditions along with many other factors as we set policy.

ChatGPT：It is true that financial conditions have eased in recent months. This easing has helped to support the economic expansion, while also creating upside risks to inflation. The FOMC will continue to assess the incoming data to evaluate whether those risks are materializing. If they are, the FOMC will consider appropriate action, including the possibility of raising interest rates. However, the FOMC's primary goal is to maintain price stability and maximum employment, and the Committee will take whatever actions it deems necessary to meet these goals.

问题三：去年秋天以来金融环境有所缓和，债券收益率和抵押贷款利率降低，今年1月股市稳健上涨。这会使得美联储抑制通胀的工作更加困难吗？你觉得加息可能会影响金融环境的改善吗？

鲍威尔：我们是为了把通胀控制在2%在实施政策。一个重要情况是，整体金融环境对我们的政策有反应。当然，过去一年金融环境是在收紧。不过我们的重点不是短期行动，而是观察更宽泛意义上的金融环境的持续变化。 我们的判断是，我们的政策还不够收紧。这就是为什么我们认为预计持续加息是合适的。影响金融环境的因素有很多，而不仅仅是美联储政策。在制定政策时，我们也会考虑到诸多因素。

ChatGPT：确实最近几个月金融环境有所改善。这种宽松政策有助于支持经济扩张，同时也给通胀带来上行风险。美联储将继续评估未来数据，来评估上述风险是否真的威胁到现实。如果是，那么美联储会将考虑采取适当行动，当然也可能加息。 美联储的首要目标是保持物价稳定和就业最大化，我们会采取一切必要行动来实现这些目标。

Q4：Given the economic data since the December meeting is the trajectory for the fed funds rate in the most recent SEP still the best guidepost for the policy path forward? Or does ongoing now mean more than two rate rises now?

Powell：At the December meeting, we all wrote down our best estimates of what we thought the ultimate level would be, and that's obviously back in December. And the median for that was between five and five and a quarter percent. At the March meeting, we're going to update those assessments. We did not update them today. We did, however, continue to say that we believe ongoing rate hikes will be appropriate to attain a sufficiently restrictive stance of policy to bring inflation back down to 2 percent. We think we've covered a lot of ground, and financial conditions have certainly tightened. I would say we still think there's work to do there. We haven't made a decision on exactly where that will be. I think, you know, we're going to be looking carefully at the incoming data between now and the March meeting and then the May meeting. I don't feel a lot of certainty about where that will be. It could certainly be higher than we're writing down right now. If we come to the view that we need to write down to -- you know, to move rates up beyond what we said in December we would certainly do that. At the same time, if the data come in, in the other direction then we'll -- you know, we'll make data-dependent decisions at coming meetings, of course.

ChatGPT：The most recent SEP is still the best guidepost for the policy path forward. Fed is “closely monitoring” the economic data since the December meeting and will “adjust our policy as appropriate.” The outlook for the policy path forward likely depends on whether the economic data continues to improve. If it does, the Fed could choose to implement two or more rate hikes this year. However, if the data remains flat or weak, the Fed may be more cautious in raising rates.

问题四：鉴于12月会议后的经济数据，经济预测报告中提到的利率路径仍是当前最好的指引吗，也就是说，还会加息两次吗？

鲍威尔：在12月的会议上，我们所判断的联邦基金利率最终水平5%-5.25%就是当时最好的指引，但那是在12月的时候。在3月的会议上，我们将更新经济预测报告。当前我们重申持续加息将是合适的，这样的紧缩政策才能帮助通胀回落至2%。 我们认为我们已经涵盖了很多领域，金融状况肯定已经收紧。我们仍然认为还有一些工作要完成，我们还没有决定确切的最终利率水平。我们将仔细研究从现在到3月会议，乃至5月会议之间的经济数据。我不太确定最终的利率水平在哪里。 它肯定会比我们之前想的的要高。如果我们认为我们的最终利率水平比12月的高，那我们肯定会这样做。但如果数据是反向的，那么我们也会在以后的会议上做基于数据的利率决定。

ChatGPT：最新的经济预测报告仍然是政策利率轨迹的最佳指引。美联储正在密切关注12月会议以来的经济数据，并将酌情调整我们的政策。未来政策路径的前景可能取决于经济数据是否继续改善。如果确实如此，美联储可能会选择在今年实施两次或更多次加息。不过，如果数据持平或疲软，美联储加息可能会更加谨慎。

更多财料趣图请戳↓

财料商务合作请联系

微信：mgdx168168

电邮：bianjibu@jin10.com